Probability papers and exceedances

Probability Papers

We introduce probability papers and we show how to build probability papers for different families of distributions. In addition to explain the use of these papers to identify parents, we explain in detail how to use probability papers to identify domains of attractions, that is, which of the Weibull, Gumbel or Frechet families must be used for approximating extreme value distributions in practice.

Exceedances and return periods

This lesson explains how exceedances have advantages with respect to extreme values, because they provide much more information about the tails of the distributions. The generalized Pareto distribution is used to describe the exceedances over a certain threshold.
In addition, the concept of return period is introduced and the two different cases of exceedances and shortfalls treated.